Water Scarcity Management and its Impact on Food Security in Libya: An Analysis of Agricultural Policies and Public Spending

Abstract

This research addresses the complex challenge of water scarcity in Libya, a country located within the drought belt and classified among the world's poorest in renewable water resources. Historically, Libya has relied on non-renewable fossil groundwater extracted via the Great Man-Made River Project to meet its needs. The study aims to conduct a critical descriptive analysis to evaluate agricultural policies and the efficiency of public spending, examining their dual impact on sustainable food security amidst climate change threats. The research findings indicate that agricultural strategies implemented between 1980 and 2020 focused primarily on quantitative expansion, leading to an unprecedented depletion of groundwater and a reduction in the resource's lifespan. This approach achieved immediate food security at the expense of long-term water security for future generations. Furthermore, the analysis reveals significant inefficiencies in public spending, as a large portion of the budget is directed toward untargeted subsidies for fuel and imported commodities—classified as current expenditure—rather than capital investment in modern irrigation technologies, water harvesting, and desalination plants. This financial misallocation impedes the transition toward climate-resilient and sustainable agriculture. The challenge is further exacerbated by poor institutional performance and governance issues within the Great Man-Made River Project authority, where a negative relationship exists between a lack of administrative transparency and overall performance efficiency. Consequently, the agricultural sector has failed to significantly contribute to diversifying public revenues. Based on these findings, the research recommends a radical shift toward a model of food security based on added value and water efficiency. This includes gradually abolishing untargeted subsidies, repricing water and fuel, directing financial support toward farmers adopting smart irrigation technologies, and investing in renewable water resources like desalination to ensure climate resilience.